Early Voting Surges In The States That Will Decide The Senate

The ballots are arriving early. An Associated Press analysis of advance voting — early in-person ballots and mail ballots counted through Tuesday, October 20 — found more than 13 million ballots already cast nationwide, against 9 million at the same point in the 2022 midterms. The AP notes that part of the rise reflects more states expanding early voting and reporting data than did four years ago.

The sharpest increases sit in the states whose races will decide control of the U.S. Senate. In Texas, advance voting is up 74 percent on 2022 — nearly 1 million ballots against roughly 550,000 — even though early in-person voting there only began Monday, October 19. Texas does not report early voters by party. Kansas has more than doubled its 2022 figure, over 55,000 ballots against 27,000. Ohio is up 30 percent, 156,000 more ballots than four years ago. Maine is up 39 percent, and North Carolina is up more than 30 percent.

In most of those five states, the AP found, Republicans make up a smaller share of the advance vote than they did in 2022. Michigan and Georgia — two states where Democrats are defending Senate seats — are running about even with 2022, and Iowa is down about 6 percent. The AP reported the surge is being driven, in voters’ own accounts, by dissatisfaction with the president’s tariffs, the cost of living, and high gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran.

The stakes are narrow on both sides of the Capitol. The Senate stands 53–47 Republican, with 35 seats on the November 3 ballot; Democrats need a net gain of four to take control. The House stands 218 Republican to 214 Democratic, with one independent and two vacancies; Democrats need a net gain of four of 435. Spending is running at record levels in the closest races: the Ohio Senate race is expected to approach $500 million in advertising, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, and Republicans have recently put about $12 million into Kansas, where President Trump held a rally on October 19.

Running alongside the turnout numbers, a new AP-NORC poll measured how much voters trust the count itself. The share of Democrats who say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that votes will be counted accurately has fallen from 75 percent four years ago to 55 percent. Republican confidence has moved the other way, from 26 percent in 2022 to 38 percent. Among all voters, confidence fell from 50 percent to 45 percent; independents held at 34 percent. About 9 in 10 Democrats call presidential attempts to influence elections a major problem, against about 2 in 10 Republicans; about 7 in 10 Republicans say the same of ineligible voting, against 25 percent of Democrats. Only 17 percent of registered voters are extremely or very confident the Supreme Court would handle a case arising from the midterms fairly.

Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries, asked about the early numbers in Toledo, told the AP: “We’re on the verge of taking back control of the House.” The AP published no statement from Republican leadership responding to the early-vote figures. Early turnout, on its own, does not say which party’s voters will lead when the counting ends — it says how many have already voted, and where.

Sources: Associated Press analysis of advance voting and AP-NORC Center poll (released October 21, 2026); AdImpact advertising estimates.